Methodology & Data Sources
DegreeRealist provides data-driven ROI analysis for 33,947 degree programs across 4,508 U.S. universities. Here is exactly how we calculate every number on this site.
Data Source
All data is sourced from the U.S. Department of Education College Scorecard, a federal dataset maintained by the National Center for Education Statistics. We use the Most Recent Cohorts — Field of Study dataset, which provides institution-level and program-level data on student debt and post-graduation earnings.
Specifically, we use these fields:
| Field | Source Column | Description |
|---|---|---|
| University | INSTNM | Institution name |
| Major | CIPDESC | CIP program description |
| Median Debt | DEBT_ALL_STGP_EVAL_MDN | Median debt at graduation for all students in the program |
| Median Earnings | EARN_MDN_HI_1YR | Median earnings one year after graduation |
| Credential Level | CREDLEV | 1=Certificate, 2=Associate, 3=Bachelor's, 5=Master's, 6=Doctoral |
| Institution Type | CONTROL | 1=Public, 2=Private Nonprofit, 3=Private For-Profit |
Records marked as “PrivacySuppressed” or with missing debt/earnings data are excluded. This dataset is refreshed when the Department of Education publishes new cohort data (typically annually).
How We Calculate ROI
The core metric is the debt-to-earnings ratio:
A ratio below 1.0 means graduates earn more in their first year than they owe. A ratio above 1.0 means debt exceeds first-year earnings. This is a simplified but powerful indicator of financial viability.
Risk Tier Classification
| Tier | Ratio Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| TRAP | > 1.5x | Debt significantly exceeds first-year earnings. High probability of extended repayment or default. |
| CAUTION | 0.75x – 1.5x | Debt is manageable but leaves limited financial flexibility. Career trajectory matters significantly. |
| VIABLE | < 0.75x | Earnings comfortably exceed debt. Standard repayment timelines are realistic. |
The Nihilism Index™
The Nihilism Index estimates how many years it would take to pay off the loan principal using 15% of gross annual earnings:
This is a principal-only estimate that excludes interest accumulation. If the Nihilism Index exceeds 20 years, the actual payoff time with interest will be significantly longer, and negative amortization becomes a realistic risk.
Loan Projection Calculator
The interactive calculator on each program page uses the standard amortization formula:
Where M is the monthly payment, P is the principal (median debt), r is the monthly interest rate, and n is the total number of payments. Default values are 6.5% APR over 10 years, adjustable via the sliders.
Content Generation Disclosure
DegreeRealist is a programmatic, data-driven website. Each program page is generated from the College Scorecard dataset using automated templates. The analysis text varies based on the program's risk tier and debt level, providing context-appropriate financial guidance. All interactive calculators perform real-time calculations using your browser based on actual median debt and earnings figures.
This site is not a substitute for licensed financial advice. Individual circumstances — including interest rates, repayment plans, income growth, and family contributions — will affect actual outcomes. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making decisions based on this data.